20 for the Next 20: Justin Tyndall, UH Mānoa and UHERO

This associate professor of economics is a data guru who’s busting myths and pinpointing the real culprits driving Hawai‘i’s housing costs.

Justin Tyndall’s large body of research answers vexing questions: Why are pedestrian deaths rising? How does sea-level rise affect housing prices? Does light rail really increase employment? His findings have been picked up in national and local media as well as the 2024 Economic Report of the President.

Since arriving at UH Mānoa in 2019, Tyndall has turned his background in economics and urban planning, and skills at hunting down and analyzing data, to the topic of housing. Recent reports, co-authored with teammates at UHERO, the UH Economic Research Organization, explain how a tangle of regulations raise the cost of building homes and contribute to the state’s housing crisis.

A 2024 report quantified that regulatory burden, and showed that the culprits typically blamed – land and construction costs – are dwarfed by the impacts of excessive regulations. For each new condo, regulations added an estimated $387,000 in Honolulu. “Compared to the national average, we’re pretty far out of the norm,” says Tyndall.

His housing research has spurred a flurry of requests for tailored data and presentations from government officials, as well as organizations such as the Chamber of Commerce Hawaii and the Hawai‘i Community Foundation, making Tyndall – still only 35 – and his growing team of young economists at UHERO sought-after experts.

“I feel very lucky to be able to contribute to conversations around housing in Hawai‘i,” he says. “Even though we’re in a pretty bad place for affordability, I’m optimistic in terms of the public and political appetite to make some reforms.”

UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham says Tyndall is the rare economist who does “very high quality research” and “work that matters,” while also being able to present his findings to policymakers and the public. And he’s a dynamic force at UHERO who pushes languishing projects forward, such as the Hawaii Housing Factbook, Bonham says.

“As he gets even more comfortable in the policy community here, I think he’s going to be very, very influential,” he says.

Born in Canada, Tyndell received his bachelor’s, master’s and doctorate degrees in economics from Canadian universities, as well as a separate master’s in urban planning from New York University.

Hawai‘i’s brutal housing market is now playing out in his own life. Newly tenured, he and his wife have to leave the faculty housing complex in Mānoa in May. They plan to search for a rental as buying is out of reach.